“Mamdani’s Victory” By Nate Cohn

(Nate Cohn of NYT is considered guru of poll analysis). Some excerpts of article.

“Usually, there isn’t much to learn from a single idiosyncratic primary election. But not this one. The New York Democratic mayoral primary was about much more than the strengths and weaknesses of the two candidates, and as a consequence there’s a lot more to learn.”

“Today, liberal Democrats outnumber moderate and conservative ones by 12 percentage points, according to Gallup, 55 percent to 43 percent. In 2016 and 2020, liberals were essentially even with moderate and conservative Democrats.

Similarly, Democrats have moved to the left on Israel. Gallup found that 59 percent of Democrats now sympathize more with Palestinians than with Israelis (21 percent). This is a huge reversal from 2013, when Democrats sympathized with Israelis over Palestinians, 55-19.”

“And while Mr. Mamdani’s campaign will be hard to replicate, progressives can attempt to copy much of the way he campaigned. They can try to catch fire with viral videos on social media. They can criticize Israel’s actions in Gaza and the West Bank with confidence that Democratic primary voters are sympathetic to their views. In doing so, they would put many mainstream Democratic politicians in a difficult spot, as the general electorate still sympathizes more with Israel.”

“Most of all, they can focus on affordability. This might seem obvious. Mr. Mamdani’s campaign was different. He focused on the cost of living. By talking about the prices of chicken and rice, groceries, rent and buses, he spoke much more directly to the concerns of ordinary people than he would have if he had campaigned on a Green New York Deal or Medicare for all of N.Y.C,”

“Affordability and Israel give them new opportunities and put mainstream Democrats in a challenging spot.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/10/upshot/zohran-mamdani-democrats-progressives.html

posted by f.sheikh