USA has jumped again in Middle East to take a lead in war against ISIS. Again there is no clear end game, and it may turn out to be as disastrous as our previous endeavors in Middle East.
ISIS originated out of blue as a consequence of Iraq war when our backed ex-PM of Iraq Mr. Al-Maliki refused to accommodate Iraqi Sunni in the Government and embarked on revenge killings. The situation has not changed much even with the election of new PM of Iraq. The Iraqi Sunni still prefer to back ISIS than Iraqi Government. The Kurdish Army is still poorly equipped. Many nations have promised to join the fight, but they, especially Gulf States, will provide fig leaf support as in the past.
Even if we are successful in eradicating ISIS, then what will follow? There is a strong possibility some other extreme group will rise to fill the vacuum because there is no strong legitimate Government that can effectively govern the area grabbed by ISIS. We are betting on moderate Syrian rebels, but as history dictates, they may not turn out to be as moderate as we think.
At present it is a civil war and we have jumped into a civil war. We should have let it play out and when other neighboring states were threatened, these states should have taken the lead against ISIS and we should have just supported them. These States deliberately did not take the lead, because they knew USA will jump in. Now we have become the face and target of this war and these Middle East states will take a back seat and blame USA to appease their masses. It will further fuel anti-USA sentiment and terrorist activity.
Although recent barbaric beheadings by the ISIS is an evil act, but in many other aspects it is just a matter of toss of coin to differentiate between ISIS and many current Middle East states. If we have let this civil war play out, ISIS and these states may have been busy settling their scores among themselves, and most likely USA and other Western States would not have become the target.
We may become a party in this civil war, but we cannot prevent this civil war. Let Middle East stand for itself or face the music.If we are doing this to prevent the oil fields falling in the wrong hands, the corrupt rulers has the same incentive to prevent their source of income fall in the wrong hands-and it may force them to defend themselves.